Reliable Physics Demand Revision of the IPCC Global Warming Potentials

Abstract

The Global Warming Potentials (GWP) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in Table 2.14 of the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) show the increase in warming by methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) is 21 and 310 times respectively that of CO₂. There has been wide acceptance of these values since publishing in 2007. Nevertheless, they are inaccurate. This study uses accurate methods to calculate the impacts of CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O on the warming of the atmosphere. For example, this quantitative analysis from reliable physics shows the contribution of CO₂ to warming at Amsterdam is 0.0083^oC out of a difference of 26^oC. The warming effect of CH₄ on the Earth’s atmosphere is 0.408% of that of CO_2, and the warming by N₂O is 0.085% of that of CO₂. Thus, the warming effects of CO₂, CH_4, and N₂O are too small to measure. The invalidity of the methane and nitrous oxide values indicates the GWPs of the remaining approximately sixty chemicals in the Table 2.14 list are also invalid. A recommendation is that the IPCC consider revising or retracting the GWP values in Table 2.14.